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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna

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To: William H Huebl who wrote (40594)	6/14/1999 4:10:00 AM
From: Skeet Shipman	Read Replies (3) of 94695

Welcome Back, I thought this post from the MDA thread was appropriate for a Kahuna. To: +scotty (17183 ) From: +Stephan Gilbert Monday, Jun 14 1999 12:41AM ET Reply # of 17215 >>Templeton sez 40% drop near term. Anyone have the full text?.... cnnfn.com Only one paragraph some way down after the BancBoston ananlyst: >> Meanwhile, retired market figure Sir John Templeton drew on his extensive investing experience to come to a gloomier conclusion, saying the U.S. stock market reminds him of 1929 and the pre-crash Japanese market. He predicted the Dow would correct 40 percent from its high, losing some 4,500 points in the relatively near term.<< sg Comment: I'm not that bearish. The DOW is 30 stocks with an average five year expected earnings growth rate of 13.3% selling at a monthly PE of 24apx.. Sir John must be anticipating substantially higher interest rates and a significantly lower 5 year growth rate. Either is probable but I doubt both? So I'm expecting a 20% correction from these levels sometime this year. When is the question with which I'm wrestling. It would be unusual for it to occur over an extended period of 300 to 500 point declines, failed rallies and failed supports; but possible. Never giving an overall sell signal. I still do not have one; yet, for now cash seems the best investment with the high risk and low reward potential of the DOW.

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