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Technology Stocks : Micron Only Forum

MU 410.24

+5.4%

Jan 27 3:59 PM EST

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To: Carl R. who wrote (46310)	6/14/1999 9:41:00 AM
From: Thomas G. Busillo	Read Replies (1) of 53903

Carl, in a hurry, but here's a quick table. If X% of suppliers are going ape-s**t on production, Y% are going out of business, and Z% have bit growth equal to demand - what happens? It's just for illustrative purposes. Very simple, not even remotely accurate and I guess you can make things look as good or bad as you want depending on the assumptions (i.e. the only thing those assumptions are based on is a cup of yesterday's cold coffee <g>) But FWIW just one way of framing the problem. % supply Y/Y growth 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 60% 125% 60 73.5 90.0 110.2 135.0 165.3 202.5 247.9 303.7 20% 80% 20 23.2 26.8 31.1 36.0 41.7 48.3 55.9 64.8 20% -50% 20 16.8 14.1 11.9 10.0 8.4 7.1 5.9 5.0 TTL supply 100 114.464 132.9642064 156.1799674 184.9689283 220.401343 263.8027474 316.8067248 381.4199067 TTL demand 80% 100 115.8 134.1 155.4 179.9 208.4 241.4 279.6 323.8 difference -1.4 -1.2 0.8 5.0 12.0 22.4 37.2 57.6 % -1.17% -0.88% 0.53% 2.79% 5.75% 9.29% 13.32% 17.80% To say that the people doing that sort of stuff seriously/ for a living have ridiculously more complex breakdowns would be an understatement... ...then again, maybe it depends on the firm <g> Good trading, Tom

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