Hi Sarmad,
I covered my shorts (CMGI and AOL) too early also. Looks like I am about to leave as much money on the table on my shorts as I did on my longs in this sector. :)
Haven't had much time to look at the mkt today, but a couple of quick thoughts:
1. My limit buys in comm semis didn't fill. Though my cash is starting to burn a hole in my pocket, I won't feel comfortable buying until the recent tech outperformers start to get hit. Software, which had been strong, took a hit today, but I think there's more downside ahead. (After a bounce into expiration.)
2. YHOO closing below 120 is troubling. Anyone else see a bear flag there?
3. There's some seriously inefficient pricing in the telco sector.
4. This is starting to feel a lot like 1996. That year I felt incredibly smug as everything I predicted about AOL came to pass (high churn, technical problems, earnings restatements, etc.) and the stock price swooned. I was so busy patting myself on the back that I stopped looking at the company, and indeed the sector, objectively. Missed the chance to buy YHOO under 3 bucks split adjusted, among other things too depressing to contemplate. There's plenty of carnage ahead for this sector, but anyone clinging to the notion that these companies are all scams or tulips is likely to cheat themselves out of the opportunity to build considerable wealth. |
