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Politics : Ask Michael Burke

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To: BGR who wrote (62343)	6/14/1999 8:55:00 PM
From: Skeeter Bug	Read Replies (1) of 132070

>>Which means that there is a 95% chance that a long term investor will not lose any capital on a nominal basis. Now let's adjust the return by inflation. The conclusions will remain pretty much the same. What does this tell you?<< it tells me a math class is in order ;-) if you adjust for inflation then the 95% MUST drop lower. i'm intrigued by the fact you don't mention a number. even if it is 90%, that is still ok. however, i can't invest in the past. let's take market peaks and dump our money into them (we are in a market peak now - it makes no sense to compare to depressions, now does it?). it is a losing proposition. sure, you might eak out a treasury note after 20-25 years. that is, if the stress or a family member doesn't kill you or take half of what little you have. however, if it works for you, go for it. just don't disappear when it stops working ;-)

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