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Technology Stocks : CMGI What is the latest news on this stock?
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To: Scarecrow who wrote (10032)6/14/1999 8:57:00 PM
From: Hands Off  Read Replies (4) of 19700
 
Thread, heard a comparison on NPR radio between first post war speculative bubble and todays internet stocks.

This bubble was caused by the invention of the transistor in the late 40's and the speculation about how the miniaturization and improvement in electronics would change our lives. According to the piece, the stock market frenzy started in the late 50's. Electronic companies had outrageous PE's - in the 60's,if you can imagine. Dozens of new companies came to market with IPO's. Anything with a 'TRON' in its name went up. Companies that we never heard of like ASUTRON, DUTRON, etc. went public and shyrocketed.

Sound familiar?

Then in the early 60's the economy cooled down, the stock market tanked and most of these companies disappeared.

However, and here comes the punch line - the top 4 or 5 companies in this sector went on to do very well in the 10 years that followed. Those that stuck for that period of time were happy campers.

I can draw an analogy between then and now even though at that time I was more interested in Davy Crockett then the stock market. But, IMHO, we have had a frenzy, .com companies have skyrocketted, the IPO pipline is full - 50+ according to the news program - and things won't continue.

Obviously, if you believe in the parallel between then and now, the question us long term investors must ask ourselves is where does CMGI fall and why.

I am very interested in your opinions and why. The book that they were quoting from was just re-printed and is called - I believe - A Random Walk Down Wall Street. I dont remember the author.

Comments please?

Marshall
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