badon518, Exactly - my point. I see comparisons between the "TRON" era and the current Internet 'fashion'. To what extent they are exact duplicates I don't know; however, I instinctively feel that many of the high-flying Internets will disappear and the good ones will go on to fame and fortune. Our job as investors will be decide which category CMGI falls into. I plan to attempt an analysis starting next week when I end my programming career and start my full time trading career - great timing right <g>?
Incidentily, I got into this whole investing thing through Y2K. As a mainframe COBOL computer programmer for the last 20 years I know just how bad the problem really is. So I thought that those companies fixing the problem would do really well in the stock market. When I first started investing there was only a few companies in Y2K - DDIM, VIAS, CHRZ and who can ever forget the 'Silver Bullet' ZITL. And then all of a sudden, out of the woodwork, came all the wanna-bee Y2Kers. Companies were going public by the drove, each one with a nitch and a speciality. Everytime one of those companies got a contract they put out a PR and boom, the stock shot up 5-10 points.
And then, all of a sudden, there was too many of them, from a dozen to a hundred. And then the earnings started not to meet expectations. And then a new contract would be announced and the stock would not move or go down. Sound familiar?
And where are those companies now? Gone! Even the good ones like KEA where the insiders are buying have done nothing.
Now, don't get me wrong. I am not saying Y2K is the Internet. Again, IMHO, I am saying there is a comparison to be drawn and we need to be aware of it. In my short rather unremarkable stock investing career I believe I have seen frenzy and will see it again. And I believe in the Internet even more than I believe in Y2K. But I am trying to make a living and support my family with this investing gig. My emotions or personal believes mean precious little.
So for the moment I believe that CMGI is one of the few that will survive and grow as will the Internet globally. But I am constantly evaluating.
If anybody else agrees with me I would like to hear why you think CMGI will survive.
Thanks and good investing
Marshall |
