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I suspect your number is too low. What's your time frame, and what
are your proxies? Using the US over the last hundred years, as it
appears you do, is a narrow choice amidst the broad swath of
human history. No (major) defeats in war, no hyperinflation, no (serious)
civil unrest, no nationalizations, no serious threats to property
rights, no sovereign defaults, no occupations... the list goes on.
You may be right, but even if there is no success bias, you are making plenty of assumptions
about which I have not seen you post explicitly. -mb |
