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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates
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To: gdichaz who wrote (2628)6/15/1999 1:43:00 PM
From: mauser96  Read Replies (1) of 54805
 
I'm going to come to Mr. Moore's defense. He didn't say that QCOM would be a poor investment or an unsuccessful company, just that it probably doesn't meet the gorilla criteria. I think he is right about this. QCOM has no proprietary control over CDMA, it had to give this up to get CDMA established as a standard. There are no major switching cost penalties, and they don't control the architecture. Without these, there is no gorilla even if the 2 other criteria of discontinuity and hyper growth are met. What we are left with is the fact that QCOM will get a fat royalty income, the probability that it knows more than competitors about CDMA, and the possibility that it can execute better. This doesn't make it a gorilla, but it makes it a good enough investment for me. The whole field of wireless has so much room for expansion that there will be several winners. I'm more interested in making money than I am in labeling things.
We should all thank Mr. Moore for his 3 great books. They sure helped me to understand tech adoption a lot better. Most books about the stock market and the impact of technology are terrible, but Mr. Moore's stand out as shining exceptions. The fact is that none of us will really know who is right until a few years from now. Differences of opinion are what make the stock market work, and all investors should listen the hardest to those that disagree with us.
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