Some final thoughts on the last 2 days before I go back to lurking. These are my opinions only so don't throw stones at me.
1) ACTV dropped over 30% from the high of yesterday to today's low. Not only did it break its 50 DMA, it broke its 100 DMA and closed below that. If YHOO, AOL, for example, couldn't get above their 200 DMA this morning, I doubt that ACTV has much pop in it on the upside for quite awhile. Oh - it may rally tomorrow or the next day, but this stock should test its 200 DMA or go below, which brings ACTV down to the $8/share level.
2) I realize some of you were bottom fishing today but rallies should be met with selling. Take a look at the chart. Does one feel comfortable in here? Is this spike down today the end of the selling? The MACD indicator for the first time in several years went negative. Stochastics, money flows, and momemtum have turned down. I don't know what anyone else is looking at but this chart is one big ugly picture.
3) The fact that Bill S. sold approximately $8 million of shares between 15 1/2 and 16 1/4 indicates that this price area is a new top. Why should any investor buy in that price area when the boss has sold at those prices?
4) The support areas have been seriously damaged and the $14 area should offer significant upside resistance until earth-shattering news comes in that one can quantify into revenues, and even more important, profits. Take a look at the Net stocks. They're have sold off bigtime because of lack of profits, not lack of revenues. Wall Street wants profits in an environment where interest rates are headed higher. I think ACTV is at least a couple of years off from profitability. My understanding is that ACTV's costs should dramatically increase in order to expand their services in different parts of the country. I could be wrong on this one - I'm sure someone on this thread would know that answer better than I.
5) Interest rates - the Fed will tighten, if not now then later. If the Fed doesn't tighten by the end of the month, the market will tank. If the Fed tightens 1/4 point, then we have to deal with Greenspan speaking to Congress on Thursday waiting on every word whether the Fed is leaning towards additional interest rate hikes. IMO, 1/4 point ain't going to slow anything down - therefore, bond market pressures will continue and that will affect the stock market overall but more importantly, affect those companies that don't have rising earnings. Oh, there might be a relief rally. It will give holders additional time to sell stock and bail out of speculative issues. What does Peter Lynch say - "It's not that complicated - earnings drive the stock market."
6) ACTV trades at some 250+ times sales. Really - should this be. If AOL got hammered and they're making a ton of money, some pundits would still suggest that the stock is still overvalued. At 250+ times sales, would one say we're overvalued in here.
7) To buy and hold ACTV in the hope of some company buying them out is silly investing, IMO.
8) Competition - the $64,000 question. Everyone assumes that ACTV has a lock. I don't - there are forces moving ready to surround ACTV. Example: I picked this news up regarding HLIT (Harmonic). They are showing this at the cable show. HLIT was up strong all day - it closed up only 3/4 when NAZ dropped at the end of the day. But take a look at HLIT's chart - now that's what I like to see. BTW, Morecom is a private company.
Morecom & Harmonic Join Forces to Deliver Digital TV, Web Access, Interactive Services & Enhanced TV.
"The TRANsend & Morecom solution enables content migration towards interactive TV whereby broadcast video & HTML content, synchronized with the broadcast video programming, can be delivered over one network, HFC, and simultaneously displayed on one platform, the TV."
9) Technology is not everything when it comes to a company's success. Time and time again this has been proven.
I bailed today. Was I a weak hand? Maybe and maybe not. Time will tell. I'll only consider buying this puppy near its 200 DMA or on an upside breakout over that resistance level of 17 15/16. If this company is all that it is cracked up to be, then eventually clearing that level should propel this stock much higher. But we have a long, long way to get there and I don't see that in the intermediate term. I smell a rat here. I can't put my finger on it. I could be wrong. I've been wrong before. FWIW, many who bought near the lows today will flip their shares tomorrow or the next day if there is a rally, IMO.
I wish all good luck - the struggle is on and there are many hurdles to jump. I prefer to watch from the sidelines at this moment in time. Call me chicken, call me foolish, say I'm stupid. But the fact of the matter is the train ain't leaving the station when it comes to this stock - the price is not running away. There is still plenty of time to get aboard - plenty of time. |
