A comment, Mark, if I may. Implicitly, your assumption is that the market is efficient, and that if the bullish case for VLNC were really true, then the market, being efficient, would discount that, and the price would have already started to rise. Therefore, since the price hasn't risen, then the bullish fundamentals must be nothing more than hype.
I would respond by positing that the market is not necessarily completely efficient in that not all information is known instantaneously by all participants. Otherwise, how would you explain the price action on eBay when it was announced they had a computer outage in the middle of last week. A), if the market was truly efficient, then the market would have known of the outage before it was generally announced, and the stock price certainly wouldn't have fallen 25 points in one day on the day the outage was announced in the general press. B) Speaking from professional experience as one who manages a $2 billion bond portfolio, inefficiencies do exist. I don't doubt that the real reason for the crappy price action over the last several months is the fact that there have been no announcements of OEM sales. I'm confidant that those will come in the fullness of time, and that when they do, the damn stock price will go up, and go up a lot. It has been a dog so far, but don't "they" say that every dog will have its day?
Eli74 |
