** Words from the Amazing Brinker **
June 13, 1999:
"If we were to see a whole new high in the month of June, that
would require a whole new level of vigilance. We have not seen that
new high in June and the chances of our seeing a new closing high
in the month of June dwindle as the calendar melts away. After all,
there are only two full weeks left plus another three days or so in
the month of June. Now if we are going to see a new high in the
month of June, yes, that is going to require an extrordinary level
of vigilance as to what the timing indicators could say at that
time because that would be a watershed moment for the timing model
to make a decision on whether there is sustainability or not. Based
on the way things look right now, there is a real serious question
as to whther there would be sustainability if we were to manage to
get a new closing high in the Dow or the S & P in June. However,
the market appears to be continuing along this pattern of probing
and testing the recent correction short term low. We could call
that a meandering market. As long as the market continues to
meander, without really doing anything in either direction except probing and testing the area of the short term low, all that that does is continue to postpone anything else happening in the market. The reason it postpones anything else happening in the market is obvious because this is happening. And if this is happening, then
nothing else can happen and so if you have entered a phase, as we
appear to be in, where you are testing and probing the area of the
prior short term correction and you are doing it on light volume
which is certainly something that you like to see, if you are in
that phase there is really nothing else that can happen in the
market because this is where we are. And what this means is that
would push out or delay anything else happening. So I would say
that once you see the completion of this testing and probing, and
certainly leading up to the FOMC meeting on June 29 or 30, there is
the possibility that you could see this predominate in the month of
June.... And then what happens is you get a rally to all time
highs in either the Dow or S & P and then down the road in the
weeks and months ahead you very possibly, very possibly reach a new
inflection point where you have to make a determination as to what
the model indicators are saying. But for right now, short term
weakness and probing and testing of the recent short term
correction lows, is a positive thing because it sets up the
potential for the rally to new highs that really is a precursor in
my opinion to an inflection point in the market.
We have said consistently that we would like to see a real
correction in the market of 10 - 15%. Now that has become
increasingly unlikely. And it appears now that we are looking at a
correction of something along the lines of mid to upper single
digits but we don't seem to have a 10-15% correction in the market
at this time."
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