Ted, RE "do you know what %tage of intc's is pc's vs servers? ias would reduce the need for pcs and simultaneously reduce intc's primary position in the chip industry, had any factual basis behind it."
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Ted, I think IAs/HHs/Wintabs, etc. will augment the PC, not replace it, because people will still need their WW/Excel/PPT applications and consumers will need a synchronized and centralized depository, like the home PC, for their data IMHO. (Also, imagine inputting data into the Win Pocket version of Excel for any long duration of time.) Bottom-line: the world-wide PC penetration rate is still quite low and we've got lots of room to go.
However, I think we'll see IAs anywhere/everywhere/for everyone and for everyroom - for the purposes of instant information anywhere/anytime from vertical portals, with localized information distributed to IAs through common APIs IMHO. Bottom-line: IAs will proliferate and exist all over the place, maybe in 5 years IMHO.
RE: Intel's Server opportunity as it relates to Sun, high-end market, etc.
I've read Server estimates/guesstimates, that could be summarized into a triangular graph (where Intel is the wide base of a triangle, with IBM at the narrow top):
C P^.....X....IBM ---> Service
O E|..............
S R|....XXX....Sun (up)
T F|100B est rev. market size hw; 30-40B est chips; 90-95% est margin
. O|..............
. R|...XXXX..Intel (up)
. M.<---------------> Volume shipments
I don't know Intel's Server shipments, it's speculated in articles they have 2-3B of the 30-40B and 30%-50% of units. Translated, there's a large opportunity to capture more of the 30-40B pie. Intel is still relatively new to the Server market, but it's interesting to see how Total Server Revenue growth in 1998 was relatively small (was it only 7%?) possibly because Intel was eating into this market segment and selling chips relatively inexpensively (when compared to other solutions) which probably explains the lower industry growth in terms of revenue. Since this market is mainly driven by Performance, not Cost, these customers have been willing to pay a lot of money for high-performing systems/Servers - until Intel arrived with an efficient, least-cost solution. The Server market has a lot of play room in pricing to generate very high margins. Reliability, road maps, brandname, and performance are drivers for this market's customers.
Not included: telco opp
In the non-Server area, there were reports estimating around $150B hw revenue, with 30-35B MPU, 25B Intel, 7B of 25B profits. Maybe 110M PC unit shipments, possibly 85M Intel. If 7B is profit and assuming margins remain high, imagine the impact of hypothetically 90% on some part of $30-40B with respect to profit growth.
Caution: these figures are off the top of my head, so they may be wrong (i.e. either my memory could be wrong or the articles could be wrong - and I haven't done any cross checking between research articles/reports - which would really need to be done in order to gain a better and more accurate picture.) Maybe someone on the thread could confirm/correct/check these numbers? Anyway, hope this helps.
Regards,
Amy J |
