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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club
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To: MrGreenJeans who wrote (5929)6/16/1999 11:04:00 AM
From: Justa Werkenstiff  Read Replies (1) of 15132
 
MGJ: Re: "The bear scenario was also based on sentiment, valuation, as well as a decreasing money supply, as well as an increase in demand due to an expanding global recovery."

Yes, those are all factors which render this market expensive. Specifically, Brinker said sentiment was "cautious" last weekend.

I am not saying where he would come out on this issue at this time as it would be speculation on my part. I am just narrowing the issues for thought going forward. One day does make a market.

Re: "Further, Bob's inflation expectations may not have been as significant a factor."

I disagree insofar as the two primary causes of a bear market per Brinker are inflation expectations (rising interest rates) and recession.

BUT maybe we are setting ourselves up for a normal 10%-15% correction down the road. We get our best corrections in the face of rising inflationary expectation that prove to be incorrect. The bounce today is a fine example. BTW, I hope the Fed. tightens .25 here.

Re: "I thought I heard Bob mention this weekend that bond funds were good value."

Yes he liked them so long as you watched the maturities..

Re: "... because inflation was most probably overstated."

I am not sure he stated this but perhaps it is implied. GNMAs look pretty here.

Don't forget Dr. Greenshades speaks tomorrow and he will try to throw some water on this market.

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