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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices
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To: kapkan4u who wrote (61920)6/16/1999 1:02:00 PM
From: Charles R  Read Replies (3) of 1573400
 
Kap,

"They don't realize that they are sitting on $200B INTC valuation time bomb. "

You may be underestimating the power of an Industry bell weather. Sure, there will be short term fluctuations but a whole generation of investors have it in their mind that Intel is a "safe" investment. Look at the GS upgrade today - there will continue to be analysts who will want to buy Intel on dips and prop up its stock price for quite some time. Unlike AMD, which has continuously underperformed and cash poor, Intel has a lot of financial wherewithal to weather downturns. It is just a question of time before Intel leap frogs AMD and the game will continue.

Most forecasts call for about 20% CAGR in x86 microprocessor market. So, for the next year or so, if Intel can hold their ASPs, it will in effect remain 0% growth company even if AMD sees 20% growth in market share. Things could be worse or better depending on Intel's pricing and AMD's execution.

IMHO, the odds are much higher that INTC is dead money for the next year or so as against being a valuation time bomb. To be a valuation time bomb, Intel would have to really screw up big time - not too likely. The odds are extremely high that we are looking at a duopoly going forward.

Regards,
Chuck
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