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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club

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To: marc ultra who wrote (5849)6/16/1999 1:40:00 PM
From: marc ultra  Read Replies (2) of 15132
 
sentiment

bulls 58.8
bears 26.3

bulls/(bulls+bears)=68.74 up from 67.01 last week

Comment:interesting if we did manage a new high in June I could see sentiment going up to 70% though it may take a while of rallying to get the 4 week moving average there if Bob sticks with that. The P/C 10DMA sits at 0.61 which at extremes has pushed to that 0.50 area.
At the moment I'm glad I grabbed my 8% profit in 6 weeks on my Ultrabear hedge or it would be rapidly heading for the red now. At long rates still over 6% and the consumer spending his brains out I think the Fed won't pass on the opportunity of hiking .25% at the end of the month though 50 basis points possibility has diminished to near zero pending future data. Among other things to justify the hike they will look at piddly things if needed such as the rise in import prices that suggests we may be losing lack of pricing pressure in some areas that were caused by the flood of cheap imports. As to the point that's been discussed about Bob thinking the CPI is overstating inflation that has been true but I assume Bob is aware that several corrections have already been made to do away with this problem and I'm not sure what the schedule is for any future adjustments

Marc
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