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Technology Stocks : Wind River going up, up, up!

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To: Ramsey Su who wrote (5501)6/16/1999 10:30:00 PM
From: Greg Jung  Read Replies (1) of 10309
 
With this product, no, not on any sustained basis. They are already the dominant product. From a small base, 30% growth is easier. For a profitable enterprise, not likely. If there is a product segment
ripe for rapid growth, it is handled by private operations

Best counterexamples (in other industries) might be Cisco, Dell, although in Dell's case now you have less market share growth and the same anemic/non-existant growth in overall PC sales. Cisco has pricing power and near monopolist status as supplier to an industry begging to lose more money. Still I think the total lifetime earnings of Cisco is a small fraction of current stock price - the tendency is to relentlessless grow and grow the tech company, defer actual return as sacrifice to growth until somethings occurs to cause a crash & burn. While your company makes its 30% growth targets there are naive investors willing to extrapolate the temporary state to the everafter and run the stock to great heights. Even the idea of such a state can, in todays market, cause such behavior. Currently this is happening in the cable supply industry (HLIT), storage (EMLX, ANCR, EMC, QLGC) and the sugar-water (KO).
In case of WRS there really isn't a big crash& burn I can discover, probably getting wind of the new fee structure caused institutional dumping. I'm not reluctant to trade it, and the lower limit on the downside is to my advantage.

Greg
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