Hi Mike: I can't really tell...I looked at the 10q and it's not as clear as I would like to see it, it was hard reading..even the formating was off. They have to make a 10q that makes sence to me,
before I'll entertain the idea of climbing aboard.
I don't expect a software co to sell at book value, and I know there
are many things to look at..that's just it..with out a clear
understanding of year ago book value , and this years book value
how do I now what direction that is moving. Direction is importent,
not just cash flow..or profit per share.
I have found profit per share to be over rated ..and to easyly
adjusted..software cos worry me any way, I do end user support
work part time; like set up LANs, and install a lot of software,
replace hard drives, like I'm a low end tech. But I'v seen
a lot of changes and fallen stars over the years.
Software is very risky, I loved the ole Borland,-(Torbo pascal..
an other lag..) ( Ashton Tate, with it's Dbase ) ( Qdeck,
had the best memory manager ) ( Software Pub..with it's Harvard,
graphics )..there were others too..look at them on a ten year
chart..it'l make you sick.
I can not put software cos into what is termed as a value play,
or dogone few..not even Microsoft. There is one..that may fit
thats adobe, as she went in with H&Q and they share a portfolio
of stocks, and it's really increased in value, still Adobe stock has
not faired so well..but she got real cash..and her assest value
has gone up steady. Still I don't own any of her either..these
software cos, as a rule just worry me..I'v seen too much lost
on them..( by stock holders )..the underwriters and all come out,
but you add up the profits/losses of stock holders in all the
software cos put together and IMHO..your see huge losses by
stockholders far exceed the gains most brokers want to point
you at, unless you got an inside track it's software is rough,
and a good company can suddenly get it's talent stolen..and next
thing you know they are not keeping up..their main assest is
programers..and being able to afford and hold good ones can be
a hard trick..
Well good luck with this one, I'v never seen any of it's products,
and don't understand it's market..so I have to pass.
Jim
Ps my value plays for now are VUPDA ( rents vidios but is growing
more like a RIET, & buying up a lot of real estate. ) PSIX..internet
backbone cable..and owns her cable, and is beat down right now,
but is a good buyout candidate.) SME..just about at all time low,
wont be a big play but will make $5 some time this year ) TSO..( oil co I know her here in Texas..owns a lot of leases,
and just bounced off a bottom of 10-3/4 growing like a weed..)
--------------------
Last summer in august I picked AMD, she is a short now.
as she ran up 4x..
If DEC gets much cheaper it'l be a good one, new alpha chip is
going to get NT support and in a year or two give intel hell.
--------------------------
Jim
|
