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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices
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To: Tenchusatsu who wrote (62030)6/16/1999 11:44:00 PM
From: tejek  Read Replies (1) of 1573930
 
No analyst is saying future earnings look bright YET. The hope is that the k-7 will improve amd's earnings. Until it is clear that the k-7 will do that, the stock price will move up slowly from its current trading range.

Past performance is a guide but is not necessarily reliable. NOVL is a company who's stock was trading around $8 a year ago after it had faltered for several years prior to 1998. Today its at $25 and the company's earnings are improving with every quarter......a classic turnaround story. So it would appear that the 4-5 years before 1998 were not indicative of its future, and a fund manager in 1998 who figured that out made a nice chunk of change....do I hear c c ca... ching!!! And going back prior to 1991, I understand that NOVL was considered one of the prime tech companies like dell and cisco but that certainly was not a reliable guide for the company's years from 1992 to 1998. So it seems NOVL has changed its economic fortunes twice in the past ten years and each time prior years were not indicative of the future.

Having said all that, marco is right...... a fund manager or an investor when deciding to invest in a stock will focus more on its future eps and pe than the past. However if the company is calling for a major change in future earnings like amd, the fund manager will look to the past to determine the company's ability to execute. So right now, investors and fund managers are looking at amd as a possible turnaround candidate but the more conservative ones will wait to buy when they have more assurances that amd can pull off the turnaround .

ted
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