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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis
SPY 692.76+0.5%Jan 26 4:00 PM EST
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To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (17588)6/17/1999 12:52:00 AM
From: Step1  Read Replies (1) of 99985
 
Heinz , you indicated that you were waiting for the reaction to the CPI numbers to see if the downtrend could still be pronounced in force. What kind of percentage or raw numbers were you looking for in the DOW and the SPX in reaction to the CPI and do yesterday's numbers still fall within the "bearish bias" or is it too early to tell?

Thank you for your input on this.

I follow mostly the N225 from here and despite a good showing yesterday in NY, we have barely punched through the resistence at 17,300 . I would tend to use a 3% figure, meaning that if prices penetrated the 17300 by 3% (up to 17800 on closing basis) a strong uptrend would be confirmed and I believe we might then go much higher. In the present state of affairs, the nikkei is not showing any strength and I would look for the following two factors as danger signs for the latest N225's advance:
1- failure to piggy back on US stock gains if the DOW breaks new highs
2- renewed intervention from the BOJ to keep forex down (Yen/USD)

My most likely scenario on the N225 is now a retracement to the 16,800 area (fibonacci 38% retracement from advance 16,000 to 17,300) until further US indices leadership (up or down) is shown.

Yours Sincerely,

Stephan Gilbert
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