My position has been clear on this stock from the first day that I posted here. I thought it would be a screaming buy in the 3rd or 4th quarter based on a combo of perception, launch anxiety, the certainty that these roll outs don't go smothly, the concern about Iridium bankruptcy or reorg and the overall worry that a market does not exist. For those reasons I stated that I would have a chance to buy the stock at near Zenit failure levels. So far, the market has proved to be a wiser discriminator between the Iridium and Globalstar systems. It may be that I don't get to buy stock at $9 or $11, but I have had more productive equity investments to own during this period than round tripping on this stock. I made my money on the Iridium fiasco (short and puts).
I, unlike silly posters on these and other threads, am not foolish enough to think that my predictions have much to do with the direction of this stock on a daily, weekly or any basis. This is about sharing viewpoints and information with others, hoping in return you recieve something of value (like people telling you why your wrong or handing you more info that supports your position). Clearly I don't engage in the service pricing, distribution, market demand discussions because I learn from those and don't have much in the way of valuable input. My record on Iridium is quite clear. My predictions were very accurate regarding how events would unfold and some bond holders may have saved 100's of millions had they listened to my logic regarding their business, marketing and captial structure.
I am on the record in almost every post that I am bullish on Globalstar and I believe the stock will trade at "multiples" of today's price in 18 months or less. That said, I am keen on allocating my money to a sector or company when I feel the market is making a valuation mistake or the stock is unjustly beaten down. I think there is some more pain to be had in this stock (maybe not as low as I had orginally anticipated). In summary, I can't talk the stock down, it is falling all on its own. If you understand how some of the larger holders or big sat investors are viewing this, you would also conclude that the stock has a good shot of dropping another $3 or $4 points during the summer, maybe more. In the end, it won't matter if you paid $20 or $12, but had my money been in this stock over the past 12 months on an accumulation basis, I would have lost out on some great opps elsewhere. Good Luck. |
