ike, the last time i was this confident was when mu topped $50 on its way to $20 - in a very short time frame. i don't expect the same magnitude (i would like a surprise, though ;-), however, i do expect the direction to be the same.
i can't imagine big money not knowing or disregarding the following:
1. spot pricing is near $4 down from much higher levels. mu made 12 cents on an asp of over $7 last q. shave $1.50 to $2.00 off that times tens of millions of chips. $40 million less revenue is a tough nut to cover.
2. kip da lip said that we are still in global over supply. duh! that isn't a good name for this "recovery."
3. not only did prices fall about 60% in the last 4 months - micron doubled their inventory! either they have test problems (my guess) or they are trying to support the dram price. problem is, when do you dump all that inventory? what incentives do you give to sell it? a care bear w/ each million units sold? give me a break.
kip knows the incentive is lower pricing. sub $3, maybe? that is worth pouring another couple billion in mu, right?
4. the hasbro kiddie upgrade was a joke. holding inventory to stable prices (at levels mu won't make money on for 6-9 months, btw) is not a long term solution. you have to get rid of it sometime. notice the timing. it wasn't by accident. that is the way you try and manipulate a stock price. me thinks they had some stock to sell (they could say thank you!) or they owned some of that paper mu gave to the dolts on parade that says mu doesn't have to pay interest for a looooong, loooong time in a galaxy far, far away...
i don't blame the manipulators. it is the idiot manipulatees that get me. calling them idiots on parade is demeaning to idiots the world over.
it is total market disconnects that provide the best opportunities - but they are painful sometimes, too.
psst, those oct 37.50s i picked up for $2 and high change are gonna be sweet ;-) |
