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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices
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To: Charles R who wrote (62181)6/17/1999 5:40:00 PM
From: kash johal  Read Replies (1) of 1571697
 
Charles,

Re:

>Christmas is already out. There is no way a OEM (with the possible
>exception of Dell) would risk Coppermine for this Christmas season
>with the current schedule.

There are plenty of folks who want the best parts from Intel. So if the best is a 600Mhz PIII then lots of folks will buy it. Low volumes of Coppermine that they can't get may cause them to delay purchases altogether till Q1 2000.

>I would expect AMD to pick up a lots of K7 design wins - I mean LOTS.

AMD's problems will not be designs ins.

If they yield 600Mhz K7's they will sell all they can yield for Q4 99.

>Also, Intel's cost structure would take a serious shock - just pick
>a number of Coppermines that would have shipped in Q4 and compute
>the dollars that Intel would be not gaining by shipping PIII >catridges. All this does not even consider the speed grade issue.

Yes, the margins may well suffer - but remember that Cyrix will be out of inventory and AMD will be fab limited so pricing pressure will be minimal.

>And, this in the best selling quarter of the year!

Yes, looks good for AMD and Intel!!!

>So, I am not sure why you say it is not a big deal. Can you explain
>(and knock my arguments down as necessary)?

Actually IMHO the big thing may be that there are speed problems with 0.18 micron. These may take much much longer than 2 months to fix.
If they change their transisitors they will need to requalify the process and thats a 3-6 month task right there.

So they may get the margin gains of the smaller die but the ASP's will suffer.

Regards,

Kash
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