An observation:
You guys are WAY too worried about short term factors and potential competition. It's driving me crazy, so I thought I'd post.
SHORT TERM FACTORS
Forget this noise. data comes out everyday that gets spun into a negative or a positive. One day, inflation is coming back, the next, there is no inflation. One day, the economy is overheating, the next it is slowing. You have to ignore this stuff. The tried and true method is to buy good stocks like EXDS and ride them all the way up. The ride is bumpy, and never fails to knock off the stupid and weak. When the stock drops to support: BUY MORE! Don't sell like the sheep do. When the fundamentals change, THEN sell. Bucking the bronco is tough, but it is the only way to make big money. One way to help even this out is to short-term trade the covered calls on part (or all) of your position. Play the volatility. Don't be afraid of it.
All I know is that by 2002, EXDS will be 5x -> 10x of today's price. That's good enough for me! I don't care what the price is tomorrow.
THE SERVER HOSTING MARKET
The market for the services that EXDS is offering is exploding INCREDIBLY. I work in the business and have seen this first hand. This is the wave of the future. 'compute' power will become a utility, like power is today. Businesses don't want to house and manage their computers! They want to run their business, not run their computers. The market is so incredible, that everyone and their dog is falling all over each other to get in. Exodus is the leader. Stick with the leaders! They are turning away business to keep up with demand.
The main driver is the internet. The internet offers extreme leverage to businesses. The staff to run businesses can be much smaller than the past. EBAY is the perfect example. A couple dozen of employees generate millions in revenues!!! These businesses don't have space or resources to house their systems.
My guess is that at the worst, QWST will buy out Exodus at about 3x the current price a year down the road.
Hang in there and good luck...
kp
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