Re: million installed chips
Just read on RB that current models call for 10,000 to mid 100,000s by year end. See
ragingbull.com
and some posts around there.
Revenue per board expected conservatively 10-15 per month, though maybe 40-50 per month given the response of first adopters (most enthusiastic and likely stockholders). I would still be surprised if they can ramp up fast enough to hit the high end, but that should become more clear with upcoming quarterly reports and announcements. One immediate question is how much content is ready to go. Figuring average full price of content is $30 (pretty arbitrary, but it is the threshold for me before I consider quite carefully what I buy, and jives with typical shelf prices for a variety of consumer software packages), and average joe is interested in maybe 10% of available titles, and we are talking purchase of 12 titles per year, so they better have 120+ titles ready to roll. So we should look for 100-200 titles available next year to keep up steam. Granted, flood gates could open, but one should keep an eye on that title count to see when there is enough available to keep the average jane's interest over a year. If the above estimates are correct, maybe can expect an average of 500,000 chips installed over the course of next year. Then say $400 of purchases per chip (in line with above model) and 10% cut to WAVX, and we are looking at $20 million revenue for next year, perhaps enough to just cover costs. That would be a nice start. Does anyone know what average consumer spends on software per year? From that number, would have to discount for percentage that would reasonably be featured in WAVE system.
Oliver |
