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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 660.19

-0.8%

4:00 PM EST

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To: HairBall who wrote (17737)	6/18/1999 1:34:00 AM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (5) of 99985

In reference to the most bookmarked list --Guess I am still a nobody :( I am surprised by all the bullish talk here today. I for one was not impressed and tried to dump my long at the close but tried to use a limit order and was passed by. The reasons I beleive this are as follows from the comments on my site... while I do not see a major correction coming, I do think that we are now approaching short term over bought and I expect a pull back at any time. Things I noticed that make me feel the risk is back to an unacceptable level... My short position picks are finally showing signs of weakness pulling back some today. I see topping signs in WCOM which is a market leader and GE is fading as it's short term indicators are approaching short term over bought. Every time the TICK was below 200 today, the market was more than willing to give back it's gains. The TICK generally stayed positive all day yet we spent a lot of time this morning negative to flat. What will happen the first time a sell program kicks in and takes us to a negative reading??? Of note is the higher number of over bought stocks that came out on my scan tonight and only one over sold. Also the so called sentiment indicators of the market we often speak better known as the internets hit resstance lines and retreated. Note my daily chart on CMGI, AOL etc. Now for the bullish argument, The market has made a higher low on this cycle and penetrated a few key resistance points.... Basically, the fade into the close despite the retreat in the TYX was not bullish, the fact it took a TICK of 400 to 700 late inthe day to get the market moving up finally means it took a lot of money to get this thing chugging and this only after a morning where there was a lot of selling gauged by the TRIN. The VIX is low, the Max Pain is 20 points down from where we are and most of my stocks and many of my sector indexes are already showing short term over bought readings onthe indicators although I am not getting more than a couple over bought actual triggers yet. I think any day now things could change downward. Remember that this is expiration triple witching and that things should resume back to normal next week. I am not ready to put my horns on yet but have clipped my claws back a little <ggg> Good Luck, Lee PS - charts were updated

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