Hi James, Sorry to say, but not good news (or any new news) from at least this long AXCer's TA corner... TA is just confirming the obvious -- a long slow decline. BUT, to try and get a feel for the bottom, I did a least squares fit line from Jan, 1996 to today - of course, the longest possible with this stock. The channel defined by upper and lower lines drawn parallel to the lsq fit line shows a present bottom channel price of about 5-7/8 and an upper channel price of about 11-3/8 (that last # almost makes me cry)! The drawing of the channel is somewhat arbitrary, bit I tried to use the absolute worst case approach. As I think Hugh put it many posts ago, lsq fitting is a fancy way of drawing lines, but it's the only way that I know to try and define where a bottom may be, based on what limited (only 1 yr+) data and trading patterns we have on AXC. I have perhaps a 50/50 confidence level in this approach on such a limited amt. of data, but it's all I have right now. Needless to say, if the mkt really "tanx" or there's bad AXC news (suit, etc.), then we could break downward and penetrate the channel bottom bigtime. On the other hand, if volume slows even more and there again is basing, then this lower level of 5-3/4 to 6 may just hold. Also have to remember #'s like the book value of the stock, cash per share, etc. These all add up to a number which perhaps could define another bottom, if we do seriously penetrate the present channel's bottom. I haven't figured these #'s so I don't know where the equivalent lower price will be, or even if this latter approach is credible.
The TA indicators are generally bearish. Acc/Distribution, Chaiken Oscillator, short-term momentum, are all downward trending. On Balance Volume has been sloping negatively since 3 Feb but more so before then. Relative Strength Index is flat at about 30, which should indicate a beautiful buying opportunity. But, as (I think it was) Dollar Bill said about 100 posts ago, normally a stock would go up -- but this one continues in distribution mode.
Anyway, it will bear (no pun intended) watching whether we really hold at about 5-7/8 or so. It looked about a week ago that we were basing, only to resume what I think has become the characteristic AXC slide. BTW, all you other TA'ers, challenge, refute, comment, etc. Hugh, I know you don't like lsq fit, but let me know if you may have used a better technique. I can never learn enuff 'bout TA.
Thanks and regards to all,
Ron M. |
