Dwight,
Thanks for your reply and open comments.
I speak what I feel and think - I have no agenda, but I do have an "interest" in NOVELL...I own stock, I own puts, and I own calls. That's all I think you need to know.
I was not trying to talk the market down, but when you have a firm opinion, it does appear to lean in one direction. Even with the new CEO, I'm not convinced in the short term of NOVELL's ability to increase it's share value. Firstly, I haven't had the time to read all the wires, but the new CEO hopefully has come out charging with his agenda for change for NOVELL. IF he's not take charge, trust me, we're in for a long wait to see share values move up. The Street is not convinced. Today's "mini" rally fizzled around 11:00 a.m., all the "pigs" took there profits and ran. Novel is barely holding at 9 1/2.
IF the CPI numbers come around 4 or 5 tomorrow, (which I don't think is going to happen...), all hell is going to break lose, ie, tomorrow will be correction day with a DOW demise of about 250 plus. If you think interest rate jitters were rampant in late trading today, pray that CPI doesn't come in at 4 or 5.
As for your comment about the money supply, you mention that its rate of growth has been high, if so, how will it be slowed down. Ever hear of OPEN MARKET OPERATIONS? Simply, Fed will start sucking in banking reserves by offering, you guessed it, HIGHER INTEREST RATES. Rates will increase (FED Funds) when the Fed is convinced it must act (I'm convinced it will act real soon, like next OMC meeting next week). How does NOVELL stand up to all this, well, April 7th may be too late......the bottom will have been reached by then.
Tomorrow will be more of the same drip, drip decline (unless CPI comes in high), then NOVELL will sub 8.00 .....of course if CPI is very low, NOVELL may tread water until April 7th.....don't count on it...houses are not convinced....new CEO needs to outline where he's taking NOVELL - .....more on this as we move along.
Thanks for your reply.
Best,
Fundace |
