Chip equipment recovery continues at slower pace in May, says SEMI
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Story updated 9 a.m. EST/6 a.m., PST, 6/18/99
By J. Robert Lineback
MOUNTAIN VIEW, Calif.--The 1999 recovery in semiconductor equipment markets continued but slowed slightly last month with North American suppliers reporting a worldwide book-to-bill ratio of 1.24, according to Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International (SEMI) here.
The trade group said North American suppliers shipped out $1.148 billion of equipment to chip makers worldwide while taking in orders for $1.427 billion in May, using a three-month moving average.
May's book-to-bill slipped from April's 1.28 reading. Last month's billings were 7% higher than $1.075 billion in April, but 16% lower than $1.36 billion in May 1998. Bookings last month were just 4% higher than April's $1.372 billion, but 29% higher than $1.11 billion reported a year ago, when the semiconductor equipment market was plunging into one of its worst recessions ever.
"Shipments of semiconductor equipment are slowly catching up to orders as the orders continue to advance," said Dick Greene, principal analyst at SEMI in Mountain View. "The indication of market strength is seen in the bookings for May, which were just 13% below the $1.6 billion peak of the last growth cycle in November 1997," he added.
While growth in orders and shipments slowed last month, most executives at semiconductor equipment companies remain confident that the industry is well on its way out of the recession. SEMI's book-to-bill has remained above parity since the start of the year, meaning more orders are being received than products shipped (see table below).
"This is the real recovery, but I don't think it will be as dramatic of an increase as we have seen in the past," said Arthur W. Zafiropoulo, chairman and CEO of Ultratech Stepper Inc. in San Jose. "I think we will have gradual growth in the equipment business and grow backlogs for the next couple of quarters. Then in 2000, you will see a much more substantial increase continuing into 2001."
The Ultratech CEO said he expects to see some tool segments doing better than others. In particular, Zafiropoulo said he thinks photomask-making equipment will take off in this growth cycle because of the need to create new reticles that extend the use of optical lithography tools as device makers continue to shrink geometries below the wavelength of exposure light.
Some equipment executive continue to guard their optimism, however. "There is always a concern about a false recovery, and that could manifest itself, with the exception of all the noise now being made about 300-mm [wafer fabs]--that might be real," says Mike Parodi, president and CEO of etch and stripping systems supplier Tegal Corp. in Petaluma, Calif. "There is evidence of increases in bookings, sales, services and spare part orders, but remember we are so far down [in the trough from 1998's recession] that any increase looks like a potential boom.
"You've got to be cautious," Parodi added.
How SEMI's book-to-bill is tracking
Month Book-to-bill Bookings Shipments
May* 1.24 $1.427 billion $1.148 billion
April** 1.28 $1.372 billion $1.075 billion
March 1.33 $1.257 billion $944 billion
February 1.22 $1.029 billion $845.0 million
January 1.12 $996.7 million $890.0 million
December 1998 0.96 $883.4 million $920.9 million
*Preliminary
**Revised
Source: Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International |
