Doug, The last time I was in Sunnyvale not to see a tech co., my high school friends and I were watching The Blue Angels at Moffet Field.
First, a disclaimer. I have not been good on MOT in the past. I've been nearly perfect on the sucky fundamentals, but not on the great stock price. I did make a lot of money in a long Intel, short MOT paired trade, but for straight trades, MOT has been a bugbear for me.
I think MOT is a mediocre long or short right now. The chip market for consumer goods is up due to high debt, and that should help. Iridium is a dog, but MOT seems to be teflon on that one. The cell phone business is a tough one, but investors don't care. At 40 times eps, it is grossly overvalued, but not likely to crash if they can squeeze out any growth at all, which seems likely.
So, in normal periods, I would be hot to trot on MOT puts. But there are so many cos. that are overvalued with eps about to hit the skids that MOT is one I am avoiding right now. |
