OK Hutch, let's look at this thing,
The recent few day market "rally" was fueled by Iowa putting retirement money (for the first time) into the market, and the prior "oversold" condition. The broad market has again reversed and is nearing an "overbought" condition.
(five day advance decline)
Specialists and members are short.
Mutual fund cash levels are STILL very low, so there will be a limit to new buying(lack of new fuel) and a down bias.
Right?
cairns.net.au
I've given up even looking at S&P P/E and dividend, as overall market direction indicators, ONLY because they have not enjoyed any indicator status for a very long time.
OK, we have low flow of new funds, lower future M-2 (Greenspan told us so - maybe). Lower overall market? Money supply growth seems to flowing only into the M-1 cash part and many banks are reporting a lower overall deposit rate. People are keeping & spending cash. I'm seeing it in the grocery stores and gas stations. Big rolls of cash again!
The action at the local casinos is, by most any measure, simply excessive. The many reports and government's worries about gambling addiction. Las Vegas NV room fill rates doing very well, as are most state lotterys. Word from gambling places in state of LA is they're also busy. These are also signs of heavy M-1.
OK, now did you see Kudlow and Wolman speak on CNBC this week? They are both worried about the attitude of Greenspan's thinking that he can read everything and tweek and touch everything and hold it all perfectly in place with very quickly expanding & contracting credit. They BOTH say(and many others are chiming in) that Greenspan & this Fed are getting cocky & falling "out of touch", as if they ever were.
The broad market is in trouble. Many of the nations top economists are scared s...less! Gold has been declared dead for the entire future, Every last indicator is coming up "funny" to scarry. We are entering the historic run season for gold. Cash supply going nuts. Add in a little Y2k fear. For the first time in years Natural gas upgraded(???? my gosh how long has it been????) the bulls are again making their calls.
Last cheap runs being made at some miners.
I even sold some of a miner(though I bought less of others), and there are indicators another producer is in TROUBLE!
The Fed's not sure about gold as an indicator because of the manipulation argument.
It's time.
Here we go?
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