That would be my assessment of the situation as well Neo. Certain posters on this board would take the fanciful position of saying that Russia and the Chinese (no doubt only the communist Chinese, even though the Nationalists took the brunt of the Japanese assault) alone were responsible for winning the war.
Historical what-ifs are interesting speculations. What would have happened if Hitler had not launched Barbarrosa? Certainly the Blitz would not have accomplished much, and an invasion of the British Isles probably would have been ill-fated. So Nazi Germany probably would have come to an agreement with Britain, as it was my understanding Hitler had no overwhelming desire to fight the Brits to begin with. If Hitler had taken Moscow, and hence captured Stalin, who would not leave the capital, Russia probably would have collapsed. As you said, Stalin made the near-fatal error of purging the officer corp. If Hitler had read his history a bit more <g> and winterized his troops, history may have been very different.
Also as you said if it was not for the American entrance into the war, Russia would have been hardpressed. Stalin repeatedly pressed the Americans and British to open a second front, even after Italy. The Normandy invasion was as much a turning point as Stalingrad, IMHO. The French landings forced Hitler to reroute forces to the West, which could have been put to use in the East...
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