John, re. <<conference call with a very positive, likely the most positive ever, forward outlook.>>
My ears are still ringing from the conference call in late 1997 when Brad said "1998 will be a great year for Mattson".
That was the most positive forward outlook to date that I remember. Brad believed what he was saying, of course. Everyone in the industry felt that way at that time.
However, his guidance looked really silly just a few months later, as the industry spun into a terrible downcycle. 1998 proved to be not a great year at all. Indeed, Brad's guidance would have been right on the mark if he had predicted that 1998 would be the worst year ever for Mattson.
I'm not criticising anybody here, not Brad or anyone. I'm just trying to remind everyone that an upbeat cc doesn't mean that the stock will continue to soar. The stock depends more on the industry's cycle than anything else, and it's a cycle that nobody, including Brad in his conference calls, has been very successful at predicting. |
