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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

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Nov 12 4:00 PM EST

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To: Vitas who wrote (17929)	6/20/1999 2:09:00 AM
From: Doug R	Read Replies (2) of 99985

Ok Vitas, How about this...Monday starts up so the MACD can give the appearance of a break over 0. Then it turns out to be a headfake and the intermediate term technical weakness steps in to bring the 13 dRSI on the S&P within range of testing the intersection of a short term trendline and the 8/31 to 5/36 trendline in 1 (one) week (Fridayish) at a value of 50. The test could come from below the intersection. In which case failure to break above it would be the worst case scenario probably leading to the area between 9700 and 10,000 on the Dow. A test from below that breaks over the intersection would just lead to a continued relatively sideways market. A test from above the intersection that fails and falls below it would set up an initial Dow drop to the recently often mentioned 10,400 support. THEN, there's a test from above that bounces up and begins to accelerate. That would be the buy everything scenario. I'm long IBM and CPQ just in case we get this one. Basically, the current profile is one of heightened risk. Kinda like fishing on choppy water with little bait. Doug R

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