Doug R:
Last December, you noted the inverse Head and shoulder in the INDU and made the potential projections. Many others were bearish at that time. However, I was watching the finish of the same formation as the link below shows and I noted your post. I could not find your post that noted it.
www3.techstocks.com
In trying to find your post, I also noted your statement that some TA becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. I agree. In fact, it can be--and is--used against the users of the standard TA. The only standard TA that I apply is the reading of charts. For that purpose, I strictly adhere to the writing of Edwards and Magee.
For the most part, I believe we are in agreement again. I moved to neutral on Friday from bearish--for the lack of a better word. By looking at charts, it can be seen that many are at key areas. For example, the SPX is approaching the center of resistance.
207.95.154.130
Other charts appear to be starting in their first leg of a bear market.
207.95.154.130
The IIX may be correcting in a bear market or preparing to negate the initial movement from its recent triangle.
Volume has been declining throughout the formation of the different resistance or formations.
On the fundamental side, we have (1) an interest rate hike with a probable continuation of the current bias, (2) end of the quarter window-dressing, (3) the cleaning up of the RUT index, and others I cannot remember.
I will be watching for any indication that the real money is coming into the market this week. If we do not have expiration-related volume in the first few minutes tomorrow, I will be looking for projected volume of above 825 million on the NYSE. That can be determined within the first few hours of trading. If we have a quick move down in the morning, stopped by an abrupt movement in the Arms, I will consider this as an indication that real money does not want the market to decline. On a retest of any morning decline, if there is a repetitive pattern, I will make my decisions.
If volume does not increase this week, I will sit and watch or participate in any decline. Then again, if something happens that I cannot understand, I will sit on my hands.
I read your posts on this thread with interest.
|
