BGR,
Thanks for the article!
Some comments:
Total Internet revenue 98 $300Bil.
Using your (conservative?) growth figures gives 2008 rev $15 Tril.
Assuming the same Price/Sales ratio as now would give the Inets
a capitalization of $22 Tril
(Total market value today around $15 Tril)
Unless this expansion is causing a corresponding contraction of
other businesses, the GDP will explode.
The Inet business will show its forte in information handling,
as the Boeing example shows. But that is non-recurring improvement.
You can't switch from microfiche to internet more than once.
Books,CDs,computers...Buying over the Net will increase and the competition will be razor sharp. Good for the customers, tough
for the retailers. Assuming that 20% - 40% of "middle-men"
costs can be shaved off, the total market should increase correspondingly , but I find it hard to believe that people would
even double the amount spent on these products.
As for transportation, e.g. airlines, there is a potential for
invreased revenue, as the empty seats constitute around 40% of
full capacity. An efficient way of filling every seat , albeit
as at very low prices, could possibly increase revenue 20%.
However, the trend, at least in Sweden, is that the number of passengers in high cost "Business Class" is decreasing and the number of low fare passengers is increasing, thus lowering the total revenue
despite better "fill factor".
Efficient Inet "Super-Fare-Finders" and last-minute bookings
may aggravate the shift towards discounted tickets.
Again, the customers stand to gain another 5% - 10% by eliminating
the ticketing agencies, but this is also a one-time opportunity.
In the US, about a third of the population is on-line.
The potential here is a possible doubling.
As for storing files on the net, I have had 10 MB free at Atrieve
for quite some time. Smaller files, up to 1 MB, can just be attached
and mailed to myself at some free email service like hotmail.
I agree, the Net is fantastic! Free Browsers, free Homepages,
Free Email, Free News...
Supposed to pay for all these goodies are those annoying ads and banners. Luckily there are even free ad-filters that removes the ads and speeds up the downloading.
I'm grateful for the services and even more grateful that I don't have to pay anything. But if the providers are not making any money
(at least not from me) I find it hard to believe that they will
increase their revenues 50 times in the next 10 years.
To conclude: Internet will have a big impact but I don't want to be
a bull on it being a cash-cow!
Regards
Per S |
