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Technology Stocks : Micron Only Forum

MU 207.36

+3.0%

Nov 21 9:30 AM EST

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To: Carl R. who wrote (46452)	6/20/1999 12:34:00 PM
From: Thomas G. Busillo	Read Replies (1) of 53903

Carl, point taken. But since they get 100% of the JV output and Q299 was the first quarter in which they had the TI assets for the full quarter their reported revs included this. I simply don't see how when one lines up the SIA figures for Dec-Jan-Feb against MU's numbers for the same period how it is a "given that" they have 25% of "the DRAM market" on a $ sales volume basis. And taking the $ sales volume share implied by those numbers and then assuming the seemingly quantitatively-challenged managing director of a large i-bank (no names, although the name does happen to rhyme with "Dan Niles") who said it was a "given that" they had 25% could have only meant share of total bits and doing a rough back of the envelope cut to see under what scenario is it possible to have 25% of total bits but only X% of total revs. one finds the scenario ridiculously implausible. I think I took a cut at it somewhere a while back on here. I don't know what Tad thinks about where their share is going to be X months/years out, but IMHO it will be higher. I have no problem with part of the thesis pointing to increased market share. But it's the principle of the thing. Again, I humbly request Micron on their upcoming conference call to state clearly and unequivocably that since they are estimating they have roughly 25% share (I believe those were the comments in 2/99 Electronic Business) and the SIA (an organization which they obviously have deep respect for) is estimating a 25% increase on $14.1 bil 1998 gloal DRAM $ revs. that they will do $4.4 billion in DRAM sales alone in calendar year 1999. This shouldn't be a problem. Your numbers are right. The SIA's are right. So please do confirm that you will be doing $4.4 bil. in DRAM sales alone in CY99. Thanks <g> Good trading, Tom

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