Valley Media (VMIX) IPO Message Board

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Non-Tech : Valley Media (VMIX) IPO

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To: Tradegod who wrote (206)	6/20/1999 7:01:00 PM
From: Paul Hackett	Read Replies (3) of 298

>>> I believe that some institutions have guidelines to sell if that happens. Also disappointed that BB Rob/Stephens downgraded. They were one of the underwriters (not the lead) and presumably close to the company<<< I think the underwriters felt obligated to downgrade. Although I think you make a good point about it occurring in pre-market open. I don't believe that anyone anticipated a sell-off to the 14 level. It'll be very interesting to see tomorrow's activity. I anticipate that it'll close up tomorrow. We'll see. I wouldn't be surprised if some institutional holders reduced their holdings on VMIX. But as it was noted previously, the large blocks also indicate new institutions might have jumped on board. I really don't think there are any other motives for Friday's activity. With only 3.5 million shares outstanding, it doesn't take much news for large price swings. In this instance the negative news yielded an overreaction. I believe that the AMZN contract is an exclusive agreement, which leads me to think that breaching it would cause AMZN significant monetary repercussions. There is no reason to believe any problems exist with VMIX's numerous contracts with the major e-tailers. I also thought the $185 million anticipated revenue announcement was very unusual, not only for the fact that they announced it. But it seems like a low-ball figure, and may be part of VMIX' mgmt. strategy to pre-announce low so that they can surprise on the upside come the Aug 3rd reporting date. They may be wising-up to Wall St. very quickly. I'm sure they'll do everything possible not to underestimate moving expenses when they are forced to expand once again in the future. I'm really hoping that they consider expanding into distributing non-digital e-commerce products within the next year or two.

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