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Technology Stocks : Micron Only Forum
MU 223.79+7.9%3:59 PM EST
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To: paul lin who wrote (46468)6/20/1999 8:32:00 PM
From: Thomas G. Busillo  Read Replies (2) of 53903
 
Paul, it depends on your definition of "warn".

They don't warn in the honorable fashion of putting out a press release after market hours available to the public.

They appear to "guide".

For example, two months ago the consensus for 3Q99 was 0.21, 4Q99 0.36, FY99 0.46 and FY00 2.62.

smartmoney.com

Now, sometime at the end of April it seems that there was a sudden burst of negativity. Dan Niles got suddenly less enthusiastic on the stock 4/21. Gruntal lowered their estimate 4/22.

So despite being both extremely bullish up to that time, these two analysts reach the same conclusion within 2 days?

It's certainly possible.

But when I pull Gruntal's 4-22-99 report out of my file and I notice that section marked "INVESTMENT SUMMARY" begins:

"MU shares came under pressure yesterday as the company guided analyst estimates lower based on continued softness in spot market prices for DRAMS..."

There's an obvious inference.

So, no, they don't "warn".

They, to quote from the Gruntal report "[guide] analyst estimates lower".

Are they under the impression that if they actually do warn the sky will grow dark and the earth will open up underneath their fabs and the whole kit and kaboodle will descend into the the fiery pits of hell for enternity or something?

There's a little semiconductor company called Intel that has warned on occassion in the past and the last time I checked they were still standing.

Or since IMHO MU is arguably an Asian player in drag does it have something to do with "saving face"?

Good trading,

Tom
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