Green car revolution?
(Thanks Bob Thrasher)
By Jon Pepper / The Detroit News
'Green' cars may be ultimate in autos'
planned obsolescence
here was a time when Detroit was justifiably famous for planning obsolescence to drive
sales.
Our cars were out of date in a year's time because of annual style changes. Automobile
mechanical systems could be counted on for early failure. Rust on body panels was as reliable
as rain.
Then, under duress from foreign competition, automakers learned they couldn't count on
obsolescence any longer. Styles wouldn't change on models for at least three years. Durable
engines wouldn't need even a tune-up for 100,0000 miles. The use of higher-quality steel
meant rust just wasn't what it was once cracked up to be.
Now, however, the carmakers in Detroit, Japan and Germany have discovered the
tantalizing prospect of making all vehicles on the road obsolete almost at once: “clean”
technologies that are green in more ways than one. If the carmakers have their way, it could
mean the biggest sales bonanza in history.
“The opportunity is to bring to market products that obsolete everything that was sold
before,” says David Cole, director of the Office for the Study of Automotive Transportation
at the University of Michigan. “Suddenly, you have 200 million outdated products in garages
across America. It could lead to one of the greatest booms we've ever seen. It's amazing
how few people are actually talking about this.”
That may be because the auto chiefs don't talk about the new technologies much in terms of
the potential business windfall. They talk about responsibility for the planet. They talk about
doing the right thing to clean the air. And one or two of them even mean it.
Suppose, however, that companies could build dramatically cleaner vehicles that didn't
sacrifice price or functionality. Suppose the supporting infrastructure meant no loss of
convenience. Suppose that such vehicles, featuring electric drivetrains, were smoother, quieter
and had greater performance for less cost in maintenance.
Those are big suppositions. The fact is, however, that the large car companies have
ratcheted up their spending and formed research partnerships to make such possibilities come
true as quickly as possible. They now spend about half their budgets on research and
development of the clean technologies.
Cole's office predicts that 5 percent of the vehicles on the road in 2007 will be hybrids
using at least two kinds of power, and 2 percent will be electric. Beyond that year, the
percentages could get ratcheted up quickly.
“Where there's a real expectation of growth is the hybrid,” Cole said. “Is it a real sure
thing? No. But the enthusiasm is building. This could set off a whole new game.”
Bob Stempel, the former General Motors chairman who now runs Energy Conversion
Devices Inc. in Troy, says the change in the marketplace will be evolutionary rather than
revolutionary, largely because of the cost of new vehicles. Everyone can't afford a new
$20,000 car at once.
On the other hand, “I think it's a fantastic business opportunity,” says Stempel, whose
company makes batteries for electric vehicles.
“When this begins to break through to the average person is when there's a technological
feasibility, a commercial feasibility and the economics are good,” says Cole. “That's when the
lid will blow off. We are on the threshold of a revolution.”
That the industry could drive big sales without the benefit of changing tail fins, rusting door
panels, or dropped transmissions makes this a different kind of revolution. But they'll take it,
just the same.
Reach Associate Business Editor Jon Pepper by e-mail at JonLPepper@aol.com or by
phone at (313) 222-2293.
Copyright © 1999, The Detroit News |
