<<But frustration is setting in. However I am still a believer. Noam has me at least until I hear the Q4 1999 results and future prospects. (barring any unforeseen developments of course).>>
I agree Benny. Promise is one thing, but now it is time for the reward. I think that we should have a much clearer view by the end of the year.
I have said before that I think 1998 was the acquisition year for the pieces they needed, 1999 is the development year to get new products announced and in evaluations, and 2000 forward should be the payoff from this product development cycle.
I said before that visibility is linked to long term contracts. When your sales is composed of many small sales, each quarter is somewhat unpredictable and susceptable to slowdowns in economies, budget cutbacks, etc.
But if MRVC gets some wins in the carrier market, they should be able to smooth out their revenue and earnings growth as ASND did, and this is called Visibility. Remember, that the pricetags of this new equipment will be much higher (Aranea has to be upper 6 figures at least per box in a full configuration), and no carrier is going to buy just one. Same with MetroFusion, a win is multiple nodes for 6-7 figures, not just one low end Ethnernet switch for $6-10K
If their new products are winners, they WILL get their share of wins. If they are doing their job, we should start seeing results by the end of the year or shortly thereafter. If not, then management has not lived up to it's promise. |
