<< Actually the "pump and dump" was in ref. to comments made by someone else. >>
I know that Don. I think it was melodramatic.
<<As for analysts my wife was a well respected research analyst for Goldman, and J.P. Morgan for many years, and I have many friends who are still CFA's and also fund managers. I know very clearly how they are compensated and operate.>>
So if you know this, why did you say that all that is at stake for an analyst is a bonus? There are more than just bonuses at stake, and this is why analysts never rate a stock a "sell." It is a big game, and analysts are not clean. You say you know how analysts are compensated, but you kept that to yourself, and instead referred to some bonus. Analysts can make $2 million or more per year if they bring in enough underwriting revenue from the companies they follow; however they can also lose their jobs if they don't make their underwriting revenue quotas. I think you need to be a bit more forthright regarding the analyst game and the phony facade it entails.
Remember the major broker house analyst who issued a sell on AMZn, saying it was a $30 stock, or somesuch? I agreed with that. He was relieved of his duties. I wonder why?
David Dreman did a study a while back for a ten year stretch of time. His findings indicated that analysts' estimates of corp earnings are substantially wrong, to the optimistic side, more than 65% of the time. I think it is deliberate on the part of analysts.
Then there is the whole earnings estimate/beating estimates game, a whole other realm of gaming the system by analysts and companies.
<< As for Rambus getting hit, I think I said earlier it will likely get hit hard, but rebound quickly and I prefer to step aside with profits and buy lower and wait for rebound. I am very pro Rambus, I just don't like the VERY high P/E, and lack of coverage by many big players.
As for "outperforming the market" doesn't mean too much if the market is down 2000 or 3000 points from here a year from now. >>
Do you mean the Dow? Please tell me the level at which the market will begin to make the XXX-point plunge, what the point drop will be, and when it will start to reverse. If you cannot tell me this then, IMO, your above-stated strategy is completely without merit.
I still don't understand your apprehension re the analyst coverage thing. You could buy microsoft- they're covered by lots of analysts, aren't they?
thanks
Victor |
