NAV, VRTY.. and the vicissitudes of Earnings Plays..
Teri, earnings plays are 'more than a crap shoot'.. "the stock to move up on the news".. The window on earnings plays is much wider than the 1 day after the report. I agree on the general fundamentals of VRTY, The stock has already moved up quite considerably just on 'anticipation of the news' We called it both as an earnings play and momentum play days ago.
What if VRTY now moves down on the news? What if it exhibits an effect like ANF and it goes into a tailspin? But what if AFTER 4-5 days of profit taking will set it before it will indeed move higher? I think the company will beat the street, but that doesn't guarantee it moves up. Buying an earnings play is a combination of fundamental and technical criteria and The Kid bases his buys on the past, and solely fundamental criteria.
Take a great stock like NAV.. It had the biggest record year in the last 26 quarter and is only now starting to move up. With the great report it was down from 53 to 49 and is now (fully one month after its earnings report) a buy and in very nice upward momentum. NAV is still a great stock and probably now will start to gain the price movement it readily deserves. But the KID probably forgot all about NAV by now. If he had bought he would probably have been stopped out by 49 with a loss. If he had waited for June 7 for NAV you could have gotten in at around 48 and watched NAV go all the way to 54 1/2 not bad for 9 days and a 'safe, strong company with low volatility'. You would have been better rewarded than buying just after the report because the stock did NOT move up on the news.
NAV
DATE CLOSING PRICE OPEN HIGH LOW VOLUME
-------- ------------- -------- -------- -------- -----------
6/18/1999 52 1/4 54 1/4 54 1/4 52 1/8 593,500
6/17/1999 53 3/16 52 3/4 54 3/4 52 5/8 350,600
6/16/1999 53 51 15/16 53 1/2 51 15/16 387,600
6/15/1999 51 7/8 51 52 3/16 51 325,300
6/14/1999 51 1/4 50 1/2 52 1/8 50 7/16 421,200
6/11/1999 50 1/4 50 11/16 51 3/16 50 1/4 391,500
6/10/1999 50 11/16 50 1/2 51 5/16 50 1/2 468,500
6/09/1999 50 1/2 49 3/4 52 1/4 49 3/4 706,700
6/08/1999 49 11/32 48 1/8 50 1/4 47 3/4 401,600
6/07/1999 47 7/8 48 49 3/8 47 1/16 579,300
6/04/1999 49 5/8 50 3/4 51 1/8 49 3/16 293,600
6/03/1999 50 5/8 51 3/4 52 1/4 50 5/8 241,400
6/02/1999 51 13/16 50 52 3/4 50 640,200
6/01/1999 49 1/2 49 1/8 50 1/16 48 7/16 310,400
5/28/1999 49 3/8 49 11/16 50 1/16 49 3/8 240,300
5/27/1999 49 7/16 50 9/16 50 9/16 48 1/2 565,800
5/26/1999 50 9/16 52 1/2 52 1/2 49 3/16 586,700
5/25/1999 52 1/2 54 1/4 54 3/8 52 1/2 307,900
5/24/1999 53 13/16 54 1/2 54 3/4 53 3/8 327,300
5/21/1999 54 3/4 54 5/8 55 1/16 53 3/4 649,300
5/20/1999 54 7/8 53 3/4 55 53 1/2 558,100
5/19/1999 53 1/4 53 3/4 53 13/16 52 7/8 446,000
5/18/1999 54 52 3/4 54 3/16 52 3/4 574,800
5/17/1999 53 1/8 53 1/16 53 3/4 52 5/8 372,000
5/14/1999 53 5/16 53 1/2 53 3/4 52 5/8 553,600
or take UNFY which we called on the 11th before the report and the stock went from 13 to 17, called the sell, UNFY had a great report on the 19th but was down considerably and still hasn't recovered. I picked up a second time at 15 and there it remains for weeks.
UNFY
DATE CLOSING PRICE OPEN HIGH LOW VOLUME
-------- ------------- -------- -------- -------- -----------
6/18/1999 13 15/16 13 13/16 14 1/2 13 5/8 146,200
6/17/1999 13 5/8 13 9/16 13 5/8 13 7/16 66,600
6/16/1999 13 5/8 13 3/4 14 13 1/8 97,200
6/15/1999 13 5/16 13 1/2 13 3/4 13 1/4 50,200
6/14/1999 13 5/8 14 5/8 14 3/4 13 3/8 134,200
6/11/1999 14 5/8 15 1/4 15 1/2 14 5/8 55,600
6/10/1999 15 1/8 14 5/8 15 3/16 14 1/2 88,900
6/09/1999 14 3/4 14 15 14 132,000
6/08/1999 13 3/4 13 7/8 14 1/2 13 5/8 89,400
6/07/1999 13 13/16 13 7/16 13 7/8 13 9/32 112,400
6/04/1999 13 1/4 12 7/8 13 7/16 12 3/4 78,900
6/03/1999 12 3/4 13 1/8 13 5/16 12 3/4 100,800
6/02/1999 13 13 1/8 13 3/8 12 1/4 236,300
6/01/1999 13 1/16 13 3/4 14 13 1/16 59,500
5/28/1999 14 13 13/32 14 12 7/8 110,900
5/27/1999 13 3/8 13 1/2 14 13 112,200
5/26/1999 13 1/2 14 1/2 14 3/4 12 7/8 233,400
5/25/1999 14 1/16 15 15 1/4 14 250,600
5/24/1999 15 15 3/4 15 13/16 14 3/4 276,800
5/21/1999 15 1/4 14 5/16 15 3/8 13 3/4 308,500
5/20/1999 14 1/8 15 7/8 16 14 501,100
5/19/1999 15 1/2 17 3/4 17 15/16 15 3/16 1,464,600
5/18/1999 16 3/4 17 5/8 17 3/4 15 7/8 444,200
5/17/1999 17 7/16 18 1/2 18 3/4 17 1/8 1,071,600
5/14/1999 17 3/8 16 1/4 17 5/8 15 5/8 819,500
5/13/1999 16 1/4 14 7/8 16 7/16 14 5/8 534,000
5/12/1999 14 3/4 13 7/8 15 13 1/8 254,600
5/11/1999 13 5/8 12 1/4 13 7/8 12 1/4 178,900
Just a little more complicated to make critical buy decisions based on the role of the dice and if the "numbers" hit you buy the stock.. |
