Mr. Pink's Picks: selected event-driven value investments Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Mr. Pink's Picks: selected event-driven value investments

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To: Mr. Pink who wrote (9637)	6/21/1999 11:12:00 AM
From: vinh pham	Read Replies (1) of 18998

Mr. Pink, I summed up the price target for IDTC as you quoted from an analyst (with no reference to his name or firm) to arrive at $19-$25 a share. IDTC is currently trading in the low $20 which is soundly within the quoted range. I have run through the financial numbers of the twelve trailing months as ended on April 30, 1999 and agree with "your referenced analyst" that the price as of today for IDT's core telecom business (without NTOP) is $8 to $14 a share using his assumption that the valuation is "probably" closer to .5x to .75x revenues. I don't know how to confirm his estimate for NTOP value, but it looks reasonable so I will take his word for it. However, analysts look forward and make price targets for the next 3 to 12 months, don't they? For instances, (1). FBR estimates IDTC at $22 and NTOP (N2P) at $16, making IDTC worth $38 a share; (2). CIBC estimates IDT at $16 and NTOP at $20, giving IDTC a total of $36 a share; (3). BT Alex Brown estimates IDTC as a whole to be at $42 a share by 4Q 2000. IDTC is clearly not overvalued at all just by looking at its own fundamentals and estimates for NTOP's impact.

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