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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club
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To: Kirk © who wrote (6113)6/21/1999 2:03:00 PM
From: marc ultra  Read Replies (2) of 15132
 
Kirk, while I don't recall and have little interest in trying to find the details of a non-bear call in the past I believe one thing that has been able to keep Bob bullish in the past has been the Fed pumping ample money supply in to keep Bob on the bullish camp. This is the first time I can remember that this factor has dramatically changed and there is no longer "the fuel to power this bull" as I believe Bob has referred to money supply growth in the past. Even though valuation and sentiment got to dangerous levels in the past causing Bob to make cautious comments the growing money supply was always there, and I'm guessing that in 1994 despite several rate increases valuation and sentiment never got out of hand allowing him to give his gift horse buys and I don't have interest in trying to dig up if he made money supply comments at the time. Now we have lost valuation, are on the verge of losing sentiment and have clearly lost money supply growth. Also I think he may have made some comment last weekend that the acute shortage of labor may threaten future economic growth, a point made by some after the minuscule jobs growth in the last report that some have attributed to a lack of warm bodies rather than to any weakness in the economy. Anyway if you ask what might be the single biggest change from other times of high valuation and exuberant bullish sentiment I would say it is the halt of money supply growth apparently being engineered by the Fed

Marc
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