Bill, the rational, sensible thing to do is to recognize that we are in a mania; one of the attributes of a mania is that it can carry the market a lot higher than most people think. it is therefore just as dangerous to bet against it as it is to bet with it. there is no doubt in my mind that it will all end in tears, eventually. but when and from what level the end will begin is anybody's guess. why the Dow should drop 1,000 points this week instead of next, or the week after next is something you have left unexplained (proprietary indicators?). btw, a high-yield bond fund is *not* the place to be in case the stock market tanks. treasury bonds are, and they don't yield 11%. i agree that anyone not calling this a mania needs his head examined - but whoever will end up calling it's top probably just got lucky. remember the blow-off in the nikkei starting in late '88, at a point where *everybody* with a shred of sanity *knew* that market was the most overvalued of all time - it proceeded to run from approx. 27,500 to almost 40,000 with scarcely an interruption, until the last of the shorts had lost his/her shirt. who's to say a similar thing can not happen in the U.S. market? of course, in view of the 55-day rule, it may be over already..<g>
regards,
hb |
