A weekly update on the semi industry issued by SSB:
Monday, June 21, 1999
Semiconductor summer shaping up to be stronger than normal.
Our recent channel checks have revealed that component bookings are quite strong, and the current backlog trends are leading most salespeople to expect a better-than-normal summer season. Lead times on selected devices (e.g., analog 'Op Amps', tantalum capacitors, sole-sourced communications ICs) have been lengthening, and we have isolated reports of delivery lead times jumping to 16-20 or even 30 weeks. Pricing in general is firmer (excluding DRAM), and prices are rising in selected segments such as SRAMs, EPROM, Flash and commodity analog chips. We believe the direct (i.e., not distribution) channel is more robust than distribution, although some distributors are stronger than others. Thus, mixed reports from suppliers like Marshall Industries are not necessarily representative of the larger trends. These data points - plus commentary from the component suppliers themselves - lead us to believe that the June quarter results will be above expectations, and that published estimates for the second half of 1999 and 2000 will be raised.
We believe non-PC component companies are the main beneficiary of these trends, including broad-based and communications-focused component suppliers.
|
