Do you see confusion in high end memory as a negative factor for ESI? Do you think buyers are holding back investment as they weigh advantages of different technology? Is there a difference between Rambus and other new high speed memory that would mean a yield improvement buyer would not be able to buy new ESI equipment while the future is uncertain?
This article talks more about assembly and test equipment, but I think they might also have reason to speak of ESI.
Regards, Mark
From Electronic News--June 21, 1999
Rambus Weather Report: Partly Sunny
Delays stall shipments of test machines
By Bernard Levine
Boston--From the back end, 1999 does not look like the year of Rambus. Packaging, assembly, test and component firms which had expected Rambus to provide a major boost to sales this summer said last week that they are now resigned to a delay stretching toward the end of the year, or perhaps even longer.Gear vendors questioned at Nepcon East and Electro here last week said many memory module assemblers, contract manufacturers and other potential Rambus users anxiously eyeing new equipment purchases just a few months ago have put off capital outlays as Rambus technical snafus surfaced. Even if all those orders were released today, delivery and set-up would take a few months, probably pushing the big Rambus rampup into the fourth quarter, or next year.
"The big speculation is when Rambus will be ready for prime time. It seems to be anybody's guess when it will hit the streets," said Ted Shoneck, Quad Systems Corp. president and chief executive officer. "In January and February, people were ramping up. There was a lot of comment at Nepcon West. Then there were technical snafus such as the chip's inability to dissipate its heat. Our customers are cautious, but they want us to be ready. They are holding off on dedicated capital. Some customers are going with flexible assembly machines, that can be used for other things now and Rambus later."
Craig Ramsey, Quad Systems senior vice president of marketing, added, "People about two to three months ago were all fired up for Rambus equipment, and worried about shortages. Then news came out that Rambus didn't quite work yet, that technical problems would cause a delay, so all these spending plans were put on hold."
Once the orders are finally made, "typically installation of equipment, pilot runs and qualification might take three to four months," said Shiuh-Kao Chiang, managing partner at strategic business consultant Prismark Partners LLC.
There is still plenty of interest, according to H.C. Lee, marketing manager, Semiconductor Systems division, Samsung Aerospace Ind. Ltd., Southampton, Pa., which markets Samsung assembly gear in the United States. "We have been getting a lot of inquiries, people saying they will go into it the latter part of this year or early next year. It is a little late. We expected it to be widespread this year."
Nevertheless, many marketers here cited Intel's clout as likely driving Rambus' success. Ed Craig, sales and marketing manager for Texas Instruments Inc.'s Mansfield, Mass. Interconnection Products unit, said despite some earlier resistance from DRAM manufacturers, with Intel's monetary support "seeding the market, the whole DRAM marketplace now recognizes Rambus as inevitable." TI unveiled Rambus burn-in test sockets here and has been supplying beta sites for four to five months.
"Everyone agrees Rambus will be a factor," said Bob Million, vice president at Fleck Research. "The questions are when, and how much? Will it be relegated to a high-end niche like high-end servers and workstations?"
For more widespread usage, overall Rambus costs must come down, many suggest, "That is key in memory. Nobody can afford the infrastructure otherwise," said TI's James Forster, who delivered a presentation here.
High costs have been a major complaint against Tessera's Micro BGA, the chip-scale package reference design expected to grab the lion's share of early Rambus business. Potential users have been scouting for cheaper CSP alternatives, however, and an extended Rambus delay could give Tessera's competitors more time to get their acts together, analysts contend.
Tessera insists its CSP will still retain an edge, however "The Micro BGA is the best chip-scale package for Rambus," said Tessera's Vern Solberg, director of advanced manufacturing technology, who presented here. "There is short coupling, reliability; it is very producible. Our infrastructure of licensees is a big plus. The Micro BGA is better than any of the alternatives. The first product on the market is usually the winner."
Delays can take away a window of opportunity, however. Connector makers AMP Inc. and Molex Inc., for example, have rushed to have their Rambus RIMM connectors validated in time for the previously predicted summer surge. They will face stiffer competition driving down prices as time goes on, observers predict. Berg Electronics has Rambus connectors in the works, Taiwan's Foxconn International Inc. was the most recent firm to sign an agreement with Rambus Inc. to develop Rambus RIMM connectors, and others reportedly have products under development.
But many here see a silver lining in the delay. "It creates a huge opportunity for our second generation machine," Quad's Ramsey said. "We weren't ready three months ago, we would have gone after the business with standard IC placers," but here at the show, Quad introduced a new Meridian SMT assembler series including a 1050M model optimized for CSPs. Samsung also plans to introduce next month in the United States an assembler with special vision options suitable for Rambus.
"Developing cheaper testers for Rambus is still a major challenge," according to Million.
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