Justin:
<<We are watching and waiting on RMBS right now. According to some of our semi "experts" on the thread, there might be some potential challengers in the high speed RAM industry. And although they have many similar characteristics as QCOM, RMBS technology is not discontinuous like CDMA is (at least, that is how I understand it). Therefore, that would keep them from becoming a full blown gorilla. But a King is not necessarily a bad thing!>>
Appreciate your comments; I know Rambus is on the W & W list; will comment based on my sense of things, tho I know alot more as a clinical scientist about biotech than computer tech; nevertheless, here goes....
Moore states that discontinuous innovations are often the first, ie first PC, first semiconductor, first router, etc. Direct Rambus DRAM is not first, anymore than CDMA is the first digital cell phone technology. However, DRDRAM is apparently completely different from SDRAM, and not a continuous extension therefrom. For example, switching costs are not small, as the memory chip makers must invest tens of millions in equipment/infrastructure to ramp up for production. Motherboards, chipsets, processors, graphics boards and more must be designed with DRDRAM.
Rambus may be similar to Q, poised to explode circa Summer 1998. I see it as a gestational embryo, ~ 35 weeks. It isn't being born prematurely, and may be born late (ie, Intel delay in Camino chipset production). However, there is too much infrastructure and dependency, apparently on Rambus. It is coming, and will be available this year. Samsung this month is now producing 144 mb RDRAMS at 5 million chips/month.
The explosion in Rambus stock this month is likely due to the anticipation of CAmino and Carmel chipset availability by Intel, thought to occur "any day now". Competitors include SDRAM 133 (true continuous innovation) and Double Data Rate RAM. The former will not be supported by Intel, according to Intel, and will be Dead on Arrival, or no more than Critically Ill. The latter has yet to be fully designed and tested, and never proven to work. Rambus works now, is being produced now, and will be on shelves in PCs this year. DDRDRAM is not known to be better than DRDRAM, may not be as good, and will way behind should it ever get to market. Even Moore (p. 123) lists Rambus as a strong gorilla candidate in "next generation" memory.
What I like about Rambus is its potential in a very wide field, not just PCs. I know LindyBill doesn't like chip stocks. However, Rambus is more like software, in that they design, as oppose to resting on manufacturing. They get royalties from patented technology, just like Q. I don't know what will happen, but it should be exciting. The real question is when does one invest? At birth, infancy, toddler stage, prepubertal adolescence, postpubertal hormone raging stage, or young Gorilla adulthood? Rambus is about to be born, as a gorilla, IMHO this year.
stan
PS- How do I italicize or bold in my posts? My keyboard commands don't seem to work |
