Zeev,
Price wars in the memory business and all other applications of DRDRAM's is good for RMBS, this very simply because lower prices means more sales, and RMBS get paid on total sales, not profits!
I think that Rambus gets paid royalties on the revenues generated by the products, not the unit sales. So if the price declines faster than the sales grow (e.g. a shrinking DRAM market as measured by revenues as I believe has been the case for the past year or two?), Rambus could see shrinking royalty payments. As an extreme example, if Rambus had 100% share, the market was growing at 20%, and prices were declining at 50%, then the Rambus revenues would fall. But I don't see this as being a problem for 4-5 years since the growth of RDRAM penetrating the market should outweigh the price decline percentage.
Tony's arguments sounded to me (and john douglas makes this same point) like the guy at the US Patent Office at the beginning of the century who suggested closing down the Patent Office because everything that could be invented HAD been invented. If there's no more to do, then close down Microsoft, Intel, and all the other tech companies because there's no need to continue. Fairly shortsighted. The advances in technology enable all types of new applications that no one has yet thought of.
Personally, I do not yet have a wristwatch with the power of a supercomputer, a holographic display, and voice recognition, that's linked to the everyone by the UWW (universe-wide web) allowing me to contact anyone, anywhere. So I think there's room for some growth still in the technology sector. My guess is that this wristwatch will require RDRAM, or its successor.
Dave
p.s. If I missed the new product announcement and you guys already have this watch, please let me know where I can get one <G>. |
