Zeev,
If you assume that a catastrophe looms and the dram market's dollar volume does not increase, that is what you get. But, don't forget that RDRAM will find many other applications not related to traditional DRAM markets
That counts nothing for other applications, and the world does not consists of constant catastrophic regime.
Are you saying that the DRAM prices for non-PC DRAM usages don't shrink as well? I'd probably argue that point since competition would allow any manufacturer of a non-PC product to go buy at the cheapest price they can find regardless of what they're doing with the DRAM.
I haven't looked at the latest figures, but I believe that the memory market (along with the hard drive market) goes through 2-3 year cycles where market revenues grow, everyone overbuilds capacity, and market revenues shrink. Then repeat. The average trend is up, but any 2-3 year period might look much better than the trend, or much worse than the trend. From what I've heard, we're starting one of the up-trends that will look better than the general market growth trend (good news for us!). But I wouldn't assume a constant market either, since the general trend is up.
I may have misunderstood your point. If I'm off-base, please clarify.
Dave
p.s. All the numbers that people are coming up with sound great to me. In a 17-year high-tech career, the only sure thing I've discovered about forecasting is that you're going to be wrong. And if you're right, it was for the wrong reasons. <G> |
